It is hard to believe some regional farmers are in the fields already preparing for early spring planting. I must confess, I have never experienced a winter this mild in my life as a native Minnesotan.
Temperatures across our region through the month of February into early March were trending 6 to 12 degrees above normal. Precipitation is also much lower than average, and snowfall this season was virtually nonexistent in most locations.
To put things into perspective, this past February ranked in the top three all-time warmest February’s on record over the past 150 years. The month also ranked in the top three all-time driest February’s on record. All indications suggest this trend will continue into early spring leaving most fields well below normal on top and subsoil moisture.
Across Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin, most fields are reporting abnormally dry to moderate and severe drought conditions. The dry weather is also creating concerns about transit of critical supplies along the Mississippi River. We will continue to monitor this situation closely.
Global dynamics are also influencing fertilizer prices as tension in the Middle East, conflict in the eastern block, and uncertainty in China impact pricing.
Looking Ahead
The 90-day outlook is still calling for near to above normal temperatures across the region. This trend would continue accelerating evaporation levels and adversely affect crop germination. Odds are precipitation could continue to lag below normal as well into early spring.
All the evidence suggests El Niño will conclude this summer and the possibility of La Niña returning next fall still looks promising. We will keep an eye on key indicators and report back in future articles.
