By Ginger Langemeier and Howard Olson
Limited progress has been made on the Farm Bill in recent weeks. Congress has been in recess, with elected officials on the campaign trail. Reports from Washington indicate key staff members from the agriculture committee’s four-corners—the top Republican and Democrat on the respective House and Senate committee—have been meeting to find common ground. However, few indications of significant advancement have surfaced from those reports. Congress will return to session after Veteran’s Day with several substantial items on the lame duck session agenda, including funding the government past the current December 20 expiration of the Continuing Resolution.
Will We Have a Farm Bill?
As a reminder we are currently operating under an expired 2018 Farm Bill and an extension to September 30, 2024, which has obviously passed. The “cliff” for commodities begins with the dairy program starting in January 2025. For timing purposes, Congress will need to pass a Farm Bill or an extension by December 3. The question is if they pass an extension, how long will it be?
The hold up in passing a new bill comes down to funding. The priorities and improvements that most stakeholders want, add up to a higher cost than the funds available for the bill. The shortfall is about $50 billion over the 10-year scoring period, or about $5 billion per year. There is not an agreement on what areas to cut to achieve the $50 billion difference and there has not been any indication that House and Senate leadership are willing to add additional funds.
Other issues that will get in the way of Farm Bill discussions in the lame-duck session are:
• Passing another Continuing Resolution by December 20
• Passing the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which is an annual bill addressed at yearend
• The discussion and authorization of disaster assistance for those in the southeast impacted by hurricanes Helene and Milton
• Farm economic and production disaster relief
What About Next Year?
No matter the outcome of the election, the beginning of the 119 Congressional Session will have a packed agenda.
• USDA will have a new administration and need to select and confirm a new Secretary, Under Secretaries, and administrators of departments like the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Risk Management Agency (RMA)
• Both chambers will have changes to committee members and committee leadership
• There will be a new Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee; either Senator Boozman (R-AR) if the Republicans are in the majority or Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) if the Democrats keep the majority
• The Senate’s time will be occupied with confirming the next President’s cabinet
• Both chambers will need to deal with the debt ceiling limit
• Discussions will start almost immediately on the expiration of many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
• All of this will diminish the priority and energy of a new Farm Bill
Could We See Agriculture Disaster Payments?
Hurricane disasters hitting the south, wildfires in the west, losses experienced in the 2023 and 2024 crop years, commodity price declines, and continued high production costs have Congress discussing the potential need for an agriculture economic assistance package and a disaster assistance package.
Currently, these are two separate discussions and bills. The first centers on a supplemental economic assistance package for agriculture. Representative Trent Kelly (R-MS) recently introduced a bill titled the Farmer Assistance and Revenue Mitigation Act of 2024 (FARM Act)
• This bill would provide payments to most producers of program commodities and specialty crops
• For program crops, the bill includes a payment calculation formula that pays if expected revenue for crop year 2024 falls below the projected per-acre cost of production
• This has led to some reports of estimated per-acre payments for specific commodities, which has generated enthusiasm in farm country
• Any estimates published now are only estimates based on the current interpretation of the Kelly bill
• Final payment amounts will most likely be different
• The bill charges USDA with developing a payment for specialty crops
• Congressional estimates for the Kelly bill’s total cost are around $20 billion
Congress, specifically the Appropriations Committee, will decide on total dollars available and potential payments and may choose an alternate approach. The goal is to create a prescriptive bill for USDA to follow to avoid USDA having to write requirements for a new program, and for funding to get into the hands of producers quickly.
The second assistance package under consideration is for production disasters from the 2023 and 2024 crop years.
• Representative Panetta (D-CA) and Representative Valadao (R-CA) have introduced a bill that would authorize $14 billion for 2023 and 2024 crop losses
• Other discussions include increasing any crop insurance claim payment by an amount equal to one additional coverage level, or by refunding all or a portion of the crop insurance premium
Again, the goal would be an easy program for USDA to administer and to get funding to producers quickly.
Bottom Line
The election results may be a key indicator of how ambitious the remainder of the session will be. The agenda is loaded with work for Congress to finish in the 20-day session when they return November 12. It could be difficult for Congress to finish a Farm Bill, and any supplemental economic or disaster assistance bill will be closely watched and reported.
