Heading into the winter months drought conditions have worsened across the western Dakotas with moderate drought conditions settling in across sections of northern Minnesota, the Red River Valley, pockets of northern Wisconsin, and much of South Dakota. This dry trend began toward the middle to latter half of summer and intensified as lower-than-average rainfall continued to impact the region.
The latest oceanic observations and modeling scenarios indicate a slight decrease in the odds of La Niña forming by late December. There’s still a 57% chance we will see La Niña return and intensify through the winter months.
It’s worth noting that over the 75-year history of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monitoring these events only twice has La Niña occurred so late in the season.
During a typical La Niña, the Pacific jet stream often meanders into the North Pacific. Southern, and interior sections of Alaska with the Pacific Northwest often becoming cooler and wetter than average. The southern United States from California to the Carolinas usually experiences warmer and drier conditions. The Ohio and upper Mississippi River Valley may be wetter-than-usual, and cooler-than-average conditions can impart the upper Midwest and northern tier of states.
Global Check-In
Summer heat has helped advance crop development across Argentina and Brazil. Rainfall, however, has been sporadic across the region.
Rain across northern Australia has added crop development.
Northern Europe remains dry while southern sections have witnessed widespread rain. It’s been cooler across Eastern Europe as well.
