Long range forecasting is a tricky proposition. I tell people it’s like throwing a stick in the Mississippi River and anticipating where it will be in 3 to 6 months.
Despite the challenges, we’ve had a pretty good track record for identifying trends over extended periods of time that help our audience better prepare for changing weather patterns. The temperature outlook for this fall indicates warmer than normal conditions across our region into New England and across the desert southwest.
After three years of El Niño, we are transitioning into a La Niña oscillation. La Niña historically spreads warm dry air across the southern United States, and the odds are strong that we will see this trend emerge over the next 30 to 90 days. Once this pattern becomes solidified, there’s a 70% chance it will continue into next spring.
Once La Niña kicks into full gear, there’s a good chance we will see more intense cold periods and heavier snow events through the coming winter. I think it’s safe to say we won’t see another winter like we did last year.
Heading into the harvest season we continue to see evidence of little drought across the region. Top and sub soil moisture is rated adequate to surplus across Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin, which is more than sufficient to ease us into the completion of fall harvest.
Many experts are still anticipating a bumper crop this season compliments of a very favorable growing season. Crop conditions are impressive in most areas, and no major surprises loom on the horizon.
Located stressed crops across the upper Midwest is the exception this year and fall field work should go off without a hitch in most locations.
