The latest long-range forecast indicates warmer-than-normal conditions across the western United States, central and southern plains, and the entire east coast. The only exceptions appear to be the Dakotas and portions of western Minnesota.
Drier-than-normal weather is anticipated to accompany the heat out west, but warm air on the east coast and southeastern U.S. will likely increase prospects for heavier-than-normal precipitation.
This scenario would also result in more hurricanes with greater intensity according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA is predicting between 8 and 13 hurricanes this season and over 17 named storms that will impact the Atlantic Ocean. NOAA is betting there’s an 85% chance of an above average hurricane season with a 70% confidence level in their prediction.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is indicating La Niña will intensify over the summer as we transition from El Niño into a brief neutral period. The agency is anticipating a 70% chance La Niña will be flexing its muscles across north America by late summer into early fall.
La Niña historically means more snow and cold temperatures across the upper Midwest. This would be a dramatic departure from the exceptionally mild winter we enjoyed last year.
There is no question this spring and early summer has been wetter than usual across the upper Midwest. Drought conditions have been erased across Minnesota, the Dakotas, and Wisconsin thanks to the heavier-than-normal rainfall.
The short-term composite drought indicator shows near normal to abnormally wet conditions across our region. The latest Palmer Drought Severity Index shows most of the upper Midwest holding on through the growing season with near to slightly above normal soil moisture. The only exceptions would be far northwest Minnesota and the upper peninsula of Michigan.
